CS2 case odds, explained — and what opening one is really worth
Every standard CS2 weapon case shares the same drop table. No matter which case you open, the chance of each rarity tier is fixed by Valve — only the skins inside change. Here are the exact odds.
The drop odds
| Rarity tier | Chance per open |
|---|---|
| Mil-Spec | 79.92% |
| Restricted | 15.98% |
| Classified | 3.20% |
| Covert | 0.64% |
| Rare Special (★) | 0.26% |
On top of the tier roll, roughly 10% of unboxed items come out StatTrak™. The coveted "Rare Special" slot (knives & gloves) is just 0.26% — about 1 in 385.
What opening one is actually worth
We can put a number on it. Expected value (EV) weights every possible outcome by its drop chance and prices each skin at its cheapest buyable listing across our markets. Against a $2.49 key, here's the live expected return for 8 cases whose contents we price:
| Case | EV / open | Open cost | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| CS:GO Weapon Case | $38.03 | $92.49 | $-54.46 |
| CS:GO Weapon Case 2 | $10.61 | $19.49 | $-8.88 |
| CS:GO Weapon Case 3 | $7.71 | $11.37 | $-3.66 |
| Chroma 2 Case | $3.29 | $5.99 | $-2.70 |
| Chroma Case | $3.26 | $6.89 | $-3.63 |
| Chroma 3 Case | $2.62 | $5.51 | $-2.89 |
| CS20 Case | $1.94 | $3.59 | $-1.65 |
| Clutch Case | $1.49 | $3.08 | $-1.59 |
The pattern is the one every long-term opener already knows: on average a case returns less than it costs to open, because the rare, valuable outcomes are rare by design. Almost the entire EV is carried by the 0.26% knife/glove slot — strip that out and a typical open is worth a fraction of the key. The house edge is the gap between the EV above and what you pay for the case plus key.
Try it yourself
Want to see the variance instead of the average? Roll a case with these exact odds and live prices in the Case Simulator, or value your own unboxed skins with the Inventory Calculator.
Odds are Valve's published constants; EV uses the cheapest buyable price per exact skin variant across our markets and a $2.49 key. Prices move constantly — figures reflect the latest ingest.