Case
Recoil Case
Case + key
$2.83
$0.34 case + $2.49 key
Avg return / open
$1.51
Expected ROI
-47%
long-run average
Net / open
$-1.32
Drop odds and contents
Mil-Spec
79.92% per open
Restricted
15.98% per open
Classified
3.20% per open
Covert
0.64% per open
Rare Special (★)
0.26% per open
Frequently asked questions
Is the Recoil Case worth opening?
On average, opening the Recoil Case returns about $1.51 against a cost of $2.83 (case plus key), an expected ROI of -47%. Like almost every CS2 case it carries a house edge, so over many opens you lose money. The appeal is the small chance at a high-value Covert or rare special item.
What are the odds of unboxing a knife or gloves?
The rare special (gold) tier that contains knives or gloves drops at roughly 0.26% per open, about 1 in 400. Covert (red) skins drop at 0.64%, Classified (pink) at 3.2%, Restricted (purple) at 15.98% and Mil-Spec (blue) at 79.92%.
How is the expected value calculated?
We take the real drop odds for each rarity tier, price every skin in that tier at the cheapest live listing across the 26 marketplaces we track, and sum the probability-weighted values. That total is the expected value of a single open.